Mawar Intensifies into a Typhoon

Typhoon Mawar:

As of 06Z today, Mawar was upgraded to Typhoon status. The requirement to reach typhoon status is the same as a storm reaching hurricane strength in the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific: maximum sustained winds >64 knots. At the time of the 06Z advisory Mawar was listed at 17.2N and 124.0E, moving NNW at 6 knots.

Mawar has rapidly intensified from a minimal tropical storm at 12Z yesterday. Satellite imagery reveals an expanding CDO, with an eye trying to clear out:

Infrared Satellite Image of Typhoon Mawar

The eye is more evident on microwave imagery:

Microwave Satellite Image of Mawar

At the time this image was taken at 09Z, Mawar’s eyewall was 80-90% complete. By the time of this writing it is likely that the eyewall is now fully complete and Mawar will continue to quickly intensify. As illustrated in yesterday’s blog, Mawar is located in a very favorable synoptic environment, and if anything, wind shear has lessened over the cyclone since yesterday:

Wind Shear Tendency over the last 24 hours for the WPAC

Mawar has about 24 hours left before the cyclone moves away from high levels of Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential and rapid intensification will probably stop at this time. Although high levels of TCHP end around 20N, warm sea surface temperatures continue to about 24N. This means the waters north of 20N are warm, but this warm water is not very deep. As a result, powerful cyclones like Mawar can easily mix up cooler waters from underneath the surface and the intensification process will probably end in 36 hours.

I think Mawar will maintain intensity from 36-48 hours with a weakening trend following after this time. It does not appear that Mawar will have enough time to reach supertyphoon strength (>130 knots), but I do expect Mawar to easily surpass the JTWC’s forecast of a peak intensity of 85 knots. I forecast a peak intensity between 100-110 knots in about 36 hours. After 48 hours, Mawar will encounter increasing vertical wind shear and cooler waters where weakening will begin to occur. This weakening process may become very quick around 72 hours. By days 4-5 Mawar will probably begin extratropical transition as it enters a strong baroclinic zone.

Track Forecast for Mawar:

The forecast track reasoning remains the same as yesterday. Mawar is rounding the SW periphery of the subtropical ridge to its NE. A mid-latitude trough will move in from the NW and erode the ridge that is steering Mawar. Mawar will move North today with a turn to the NNE and NE starting tomorrow. As the trough progresses eastward, it will act to accelerate Mawar to the NE. This is also reflected in JTWC’s 06Z forecast track:

Official Forecast Track for Typhoon Mawar

Mawar’s heaviest rains should remain offshore of both the Philippines and Japan.

In Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 48 hours.

-Mike

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