Continuing on from last year, I am now releasing my annual May Preseason Hurricane Forecast. Before I start on that however, I would like to quickly review my numbers from last year, which can be accessed via the link below:
To summarize, I forecast 16 named storms, nine hurricanes and five major hurricanes. In actuality, the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane season saw 19 named storms (an unnamed system was added in post-season analysis), 7 hurricanes and four major hurricanes. The average is 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes and about 2 and a half major hurricanes. My 2011 forecast had more skill than both the climatological average for named storms and major hurricanes, however due to an anomalously low ratio of hurricanes, I was not as accurate. All in all, I was pleased with the 2011 forecast, and look to build on this momentum in my 2012 forecast.
For those who are unfamiliar with this process, it is virtually impossible to consistently have a perfect forecast in terms of exact number of storms and hurricanes. However, there are a series of indicators that give us an idea of how active a season will be relative to the climatological average. Some agencies (like NOAA) forecast a range of possible number of storms, although I prefer to give just one number for named systems, hurricanes, and major hurricanes.
2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast:
Without further ado, here is my 2012 May Preseason Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast:
Remember that regardless of how many storms form, all it takes is one storm to change your life forever. Category-five Hurricane Andrew formed in an El Nino year that saw only six tropical cyclones, but nonetheless caused catastrophic destruction in South Florida. I will continue to post updates on the tropics throughout this season to help you stay informed on the latest happenings.