Aletta hanging on, Bud and Carlotta here next week?

Tropical Depression Aletta:

Tropical Depression Aletta is still here, but not much is left. Southwesterly wind shear in combination with dry air has left Aletta with a region of displaced convection to the northeast of an exposed circulation center. This is very apparent on RGB imagery:Image

The milky, yellow clouds here represent the lower-level clouds, while the white clouds are higher in the atmosphere.

Aletta is in an area of weak steering currents and is currently drifting off to the NE. She will most likely decay into a remnant low over next 24 hours and turn to the south, where she will dissipate.

Invest 92E:

Since yesterday, Invest 92E has undergone an interesting transformation. While it was previously a large and relatively disorganized area of convection, over the past few hours it has consolidated into one, smaller area of convection. RGB imagery loops depict that Invest 92E may be developing a surface circulation. The developing surface circulation appears to be elongated North to South.

Image

In addition to this, 92E is currently firing very deep convection (-80C) as seen in infrared imagery:

Image

At the 18Z Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center was giving Invest 92E only a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. However, given recent trends I would place these chances much higher (70%). In fact, it would not surprise me to see the NHC give Invest 92E a red circle at the 00Z Outlook (>50% chance).

Invest 92E will have to be closely monitored since computer models are suggesting the current weak steering currents may evolve into a pattern that favors recurvature back towards Mexico. The 12Z GFS depicted this scenario and also showed upper-level winds becoming more favorable for intensification. It is possible Invest 92E becomes the first hurricane of the 2012 Eastern Pacific Season.

Carlotta on the way?

Over the last few runs the GFS has been persistent in developing an area out of the ITCZ into Tropical Storm or even Hurricane Carlotta. While there is currently not much in the way of a defined disturbance in this area, the ITCZ over the far Eastern Pacific Ocean is active and will  have to be watched as the GFS is forecasting Carlotta may also impact the Central American coastline if she develops.

Here is today’s 12Z GFS run showing Bud to the west of Carlotta 120 hours out:

Image

I’ll have an update on what is going on in the Atlantic Ocean shortly.

-Mike

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3 responses to “Aletta hanging on, Bud and Carlotta here next week?

  1. Pingback: Alberto is weakening, TD 2E forms in the EPAC | CaneFever·

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